Peace and Conflict
Historic Trends
Written human history, it has been argued, is largely the history of warfare. “War,” wrote historian Gwynne Dyer, “is a central institution in human civilization, and it has a history precisely as long as civilization.”
Armies and states were fully formed institutions by the time writing was invented to record their deeds. The great empires and civilizations of the past were created, maintained, and often terminated, by the wars they fought. Some of the most memorable figures in history – including Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, William the Conqueror, George Washington, and Mao Zedong – are those who led or launched armies into battle.
In 1968, historians Will and Ariel Durant calculated that there had been only 268 years free of war in the previous 3,421 years. Certainly there have been no years without war since.
The end of the past century marked 55 years of peace between the great powers of the world, the longest such period in recorded history. But, since the end of World War II in 1945, the number of regional or civil armed conflicts has continued to grow, reaching a peak of 68 in the year 2000. The majority of those wars were low-intensity and intrastate of which nearly 50% of them were being fought in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East with conventional weapons.
During the last decade of the 20th century, civil wars, ethnic cleansing, and acts of genocide claimed some 5 million lives, the majority of whom were civilians. In World War II civilian casualties accounted for only 50% of the total; since then they have increased to 90%. Millions more died from hunger and disease resulting from dislocation and disruption of food supplies and medical treatment.
With the recent spread of terrorism as a means for targeting particular enemies, no nation is immune from attack. The potential use of weapons of mass destruction in such attacks – and the economic and social disruption such attacks could inflict –are a stark warning that traditional models of conflict do not apply to 21st century modes of warfare.