The UN predicts that the world population will increase to 8 billion by 2025. Accompanying that growth will be a dramatic rise in per capita consumption of food and a growing demand for more calories. Increased consumption will make more obvious the huge inequities in the distribution of food to the people of the world.

This is not a new problem. In the 1950s, population experts shocked the world with their projections; many were convinced that, unless we made fundamental changes in agricultural production, widespread famine would result. Agricultural advances of the 1950s, called the “Green Revolution I” raised the amount of food per capita through the development and introduction of high yield, pest resistant seeds, and increased irrigation techniques. Green Revolution I was an impressive attempt to increase food production in rich and poor countries alike. But the environmental and social impacts of this agricultural revolution were significant: large tracts of land were deforested, chemical fertilizers poisoned soil and groundwater, and peasant farmers lost control of seed stocks.

Most importantly, at the beginning of the 21st century, it is clear that Green Revolution I didn’t actually bridge the gap between food producers and food consumers; it kept up with population growth for only a moment in time. Poor people don’t eat well; the result is that about 20 percent of the world’s population consumes too few calories to support an active working life. As a result, the productivity of both agricultural and industrial workers suffers greatly in undernourished developing countries.

Recent advances in the area of genetic engineering, often coined “Green Revolution II” is the latest attempt to address the problem of insufficient food for a growing population. Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) represent to some the ultimate answer to food shortages and to others a serious threat to the natural world. GMOs include seeds, which are resistant to certain pests and have built-in genetic characteristics that promise higher yields and resistance to natural pests. But, tinkering with the genetic make-up of traditional crops can threaten organic seed stocks and produces crops, like the Terminator, that have the potential of monopolizing international agriculture.

Conversion of forests and other arable land to pasture for cattle reduces rainforests essential to the environmental health of the globe. The cycle of environmental degradation has also led to unnatural disasters, especially droughts and floods. In the first few years of the 21st century, floods in Honduras and India and droughts in Afghanistan have made those countries heavily dependent on international food aid.

There are many trouble spots in the world where food and water security are compromised rather than protected. Civil wars often threaten existing food and water supplies for a variety of reasons: land mines and unexploded ordnance interfere with potentially produce agricultural lands, military service of youth and farmers means a smaller work force, and internal displacement (refugees) of rural populations results in more mouths to feed. In fact, it is estimated that 10 percent of the world’s hungry people are in that condition because of the disruptions of war and other civil strife.

In the process, the health of many of the world’s citizens suffers. Proper nutrition is the foundation of good health, but it is estimated that about 40 million people die annually from hunger and hunger-related diseases. Lack of a balanced diet and an insufficient daily caloric intake leave many more vulnerable to other diseases and unable to resist the secondary afflictions associated with a disease like HIV-AIDS. At the other end of the economic spectrum, 30 percent of adults in the United States over the age of 40 are obese and suffer from a variety of serious health problems associated with that condition.

Water Security: The Current Situation & Predictions for the Future

Water is one of the most precious commodities on the earth; its “ownership” and use—like food—are not equitably distributed. The least dire predictions for the future are that by 2025, two-thirds of the world’s population will be living with water shortages or absolute water scarcity. These shortages will affect the poorest first, both in terms of domestic consumption and irrigation.

World history is filled with hundreds of examples of how water supply determines the success or failure of civilizations. Every great river system like the Indus Valley, the Tigris & Euphrates, Nile Valleys, and the Mekong -- to name just a few -- has a long history of conflict and cooperation over its control. Water use has determined the very nature of the civilization itself.

Already in this century, neighboring countries have come to the brink of war over the use of river water shared by them. For the most part, potential conflicts have been resolved cooperatively: 157 water treaties have been signed over the past 50 years. But as the renewable supply declines and world population grows, some predict a different scenario. Even though only one-quarter of water- related interactions were hostile in the last 50 years, there were 37 instances where shots were fired or some sort of military action occurred.

Water can be viewed, like food, as a commodity, which can be traded on the world market and produced efficiently with the application of the very latest technology. Some multinational corporations are interested in making water an item to be bought and sold on the world market. Poor people already often pay more for their water than those in affluent countries.

In a glimpse of what could easily happen as privatization of resources increases in the next decade, Bechtel Corporation, backed by the World Bank, doubled the price of water in the city of Cochabamba, Bolivia in 1999. They were unprepared for the violent reaction of the mostly poor citizens of that city who still saw access to fresh water as a right and not a privilege.

International law is even more explicit concerning how water should be used: “In determining ‘vital human needs’, special attention is to be paid to providing sufficient water to sustain human life, including both drinking water and water required for production of food in order to prevent starvation.” (Article 10 UN Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses)

Many of the most debilitating diseases—like cholera, typhoid and less severe forms of diarrhea—are water-borne; lack of adequate sanitation and an unpredictable water supply are major culprits in high infant mortality. Many experts claim that provision of clean water both for drinking and other household uses would be a major leverage point in assuring adequate and equitable healthcare.

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